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What to Watch - Week of 8 December 2025

It’s all about the data this week, with the RBA meeting tomorrow, where no rate change is expected but NAB has flagged a more hawkish tilt to the accompanying statement. Globally, the FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps when it meets this week, while the BoC and the SNB are also seen on hold on Thursday. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
NAB Markets Research
08 December 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 2 min read

Taylor Nugent & Jessica Cameron | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • Q3 GDP rose 0.4% qoq and 2.1% yoy, but private final demand outpaced the RBA’s expectations.
  • A surge in household spending in October suggests robust consumer momentum into 4Q.
  • The challenges inherent in a soft landing are becoming more meaningful for the RBA. We expanded on this here: Prepare for a shift towards a more hawkish RBA.

Week ahead

  • The RBA is expected to hold rates on Tuesday, but there has been a further shift in the distribution of risks to the monetary policy outlook and we expect a shift towards more hawkish communication.
  • We expect employment growth of 25k and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.3% on Thursday, though it is a close call between 4.3% and 4.4% (consensus +20k/4.4%). The NAB Business Survey (Tuesday).
  • In NZ, the new RBNZ Governor talks to media on Wednesday. The week’s data include international migration (Wednesday), business financial data (Thursday), and the PMI (Friday).
  • The FOMC is expected to cut next week. The FOMC is divided, but market pricing anticipates the core of the committee that favoured another 25bp of adjustment this year remains intact. On the data side, September and October JOLTS data are published Tuesday and 3Q ECI Wednesday.
  • The BoC is set to hold rates at its meeting Wednesday and the SNB is also seen on hold on Thursday.
  • In the UK, monthly GDP growth is expected to show a modest improvement in October after recent softness, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday to defend the latest budget.
  • In China, trade data is Monday and CPI and PPI data are out Wednesday. Japan labour cash earnings and final GDP data are Monday

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

 

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.