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Insights

Markets

Stay informed on the latest markets commentary from industry experts including Livewire, FirstLinks and Morningstar.

Latest insights

Q1 trimmed mean a tenth above consensus but in line with RBA forecast

Australia’s core inflation slowed to a 3-year low in Q1, while a modest upside surprise to NAB’s projections, it doesn’t throw cause for changes to the policy outlook. NAB is still pencilling in a 50bps cut from the RBA in May. Looking ahead, headwinds to domestic growth and net disinflationary in Australia are expected on the back of a slower global growth environment due to substantially higher US tariff barriers, and elevated policy uncertainty. Read the full report here.
30 April 2025 4 min read

A tale of two banks: The trade Australian investors need to consider

Australian investors exhibit one of the highest levels of “home bias” globally and while there are some rational justifications for this preference, Plato Investment Management says it can come at a cost.
30 April 2025 2 min read

What to Watch - Week of 28 April 2025

Q1 CPI (Weds) dominates the local data docket in the week ahead, NAB expects the core trimmed mean print to be 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y, which would see core inflation be one tenth below the RBA’s Feb forecast track. Offshore, investors remain focused on US policy developments as President Trump closes in on his first 100 days in office. Data wise, US Q1 GDP & PCE data (Weds) and payrolls (Fri) have the potential to reflect some of the headwinds from trade/tariff uncertainty. Finally, earning season continues with heavy weights Amazon, Meta (Weds) and Apple (Thurs) the headline events.
27 April 2025 2 min read

This recently triggered market signal has never failed to predict gains

Ophir Asset Management says the signal has occurred 74 times since 1990, with US markets ending higher 1 & 5 years later 100% of the time. Here’s what to do about it.
24 April 2025 4 min read

What to Watch - Week of 21 April 2025

It is a very short week in Australia with nothing of note from the ABS or RBA ahead of the crucial Q1 CPI print next week. Globally, tariffs remain in focus, the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings in Washington and US earnings season continues in full swing with Tesla (Tues), and Microsoft and Alphabet (Fri) the headline events.
21 April 2025 3 min read

AU unemployment continued to track broadly sideways in March

Australian employment rebounded in March, recovering from a one-off dive the month before, with the unemployment rate coming in slightly below forecasts, signalling the labour market remains healthy but does not stand in the way of policy easing. Read NAB’s full report here.
17 April 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 14 April 2025

It is a holiday shortened week for most of the globe, and the dataflow will continue to take a backseat to offshore trade/financial market developments. In Australia, the RBA releases its latest meeting minutes, though they pre-date the latest intensification in global uncertainty. In the US we get retail sales plus FOMC Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Wednesday on the economic outlook. First quarter earnings also kick into gear with Goldmans (Mon), Citigroup and BofA (Tues).
14 April 2025 3 min read

Captain Chaos Blinked – have recession fears peaked?

US President Donald Trump has authorised an immediate 90-day pause on many of his new tariffs, giving somewhat of a reprieve to most of America’s trading partners. Marcus Padley from Marcus Today details what’s happened so far.
10 April 2025 2 min read

Here we are… Are we there yet?

Henry Jennings from Marcus Today says while the recent ‘shock and awe’ of global market swings was always going to be painful, investors should take note of the great Douglas Adams: “Don’t Panic.” You’ll probably do the wrong thing. Here he details what Australian investors should do amongst the turmoil.
08 April 2025 3 min read

The ASX 200 is getting smashed - but is now the big opportunity you’ve been waiting for?

To buy or not to buy. That is the question. Livewire’s Carl Capolingua breaks down the fundamentals, technicals, and how historical moves played out.
07 April 2025 5 min read

What to Watch - Week of 7 April 2025

Another week begins with focus on the latest US tariffs and impact on the global backdrop. There was little clarification for the hopeful over weekend with baseline tariffs (10%) effective from April 5 and the higher tariffs from April 9. Locally on the docket though it will be quiet, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaking (Thurs), while offshore we get CPI (Thurs) and PPI (Fri) for March state side. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
07 April 2025 2 min read

Aggressive US tariffs pressure China for a forceful response

Coolabah Capital says to date, the Trump administration has raised the US tariff on Chinese imports from about 22% to 76%. So, does this pressure China to make a strong retaliatory response?
03 April 2025 2 min read

Tariffs, trade, and tumbling markets: What it means for investors

It’s risk-off for global markets as US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were more aggressive than expected. Jamieson Coote Bonds takes you through the impact to investors.
03 April 2025 3 min read

A buying opportunity or the prelude to a full-blown bear market?

Fidelity International’s Tom Stevenson says there’s only one story in global markets this week. What the US President has dubbed Liberation, and others prefer to call Demolition, Day.
01 April 2025 3 min read

RBA holds, shows no pre-commitment to May, welcomes decline in inflation

No surprise from the RBA yesterday, after the central bank kept the official cash rate on hold at 4.1%. While the statement welcomed a decline in inflation, it did call out geopolitical uncertainties. NAB says there is nothing to suggest the RBA Board won’t cut in May if data comes in line or below their forecast track. Read the full report here.
01 April 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 31 March 2025

It’s all about the RBA’s interest rate decision this week, where it’s widely expected to keep rates on hold as it waits for more data on inflation. Elsewhere, retail sales and dwelling prices will be closely watched. Offshore, ‘Liberation Day’ is in firm focus, as reciprocal tariffs come into effect on April 2 in the US, in Europe prelim CPI dominates and China’s official PMIs are released.
30 March 2025 3 min read

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