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Insights

Markets

Stay informed on the latest markets commentary from industry experts including Livewire, FirstLinks and Morningstar.

Latest insights

Q1 CPI slightly softer than expected but more inflation to come in Q2 and Q3

First quarter inflation has come in slightly softer than expected but NAB flags the data is dated given the unfolding oil price shock amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. On the numbers, trimmed mean came in at 0.8% qoq (slightly softer than NAB consensus), taking the annual rate to 3.5%. Looking ahead, NAB continues to see a 25bps rate hike at the RBA’s next meeting and will then remain on hold until mid-to-late 2027. Read the full report here.
29 April 2026 3 min read

Finding value amid uncertainty

Discover investment opportunities to help navigate the volatility. Tom Piotrowski, nabtrade’s Head of Market Insights speaks with Glen Bertram, Head of Asset Allocation & Portfolio Management at JBWere about where to find value amid the uncertainty. They talk about how elevated geopolitical risk is structural, not transitory, and where investors can find solid returns in the current trading environment.
28 April 2026 20 min watch

What to Watch - Week of 27 April 2026

It will be a week ahead, with focus domestically firmly fixed on Q1 CPI released on Wednesday. NAB expects trimmed mean inflation of 0.9% qoq and 3.5% yoy. On the global stage, central banks are on watch with the BoJ, BoC, FOMC, ECB and BoE meeting, with all expected to keep rates on hold. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
28 April 2026 3 min read

Private Credit headwinds move onshore

As the conflict in the Middle East continues Yarra Capital Management warns for Australian private credit investors, the worst could be yet to come.
21 April 2026 3 min read

Why is Aussie inflation so stubborn?

Australian inflation remains sticky, which has seen the RBA to hike rates. However, Quay Global Investors says one source of inflation is re-accelerating, and history shows that monetary policy alone cannot quell demand for it.
21 April 2026 4 min read

The biggest oil shock in history. Why isn't the price higher?

While increases in oil prices are dominating media coverage of the turmoil in the Middle-East, Vertium Asset Management’s Jason Teh flags it is worth exploring why prices haven't gone up more.
16 April 2026 3 min read

9 key longer-term consequences of the US/Israeli war with Iran

AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver details how a fragile ceasefire hides rising inflation, weaker growth and lasting geopolitical shifts which he says are set to reshape markets and returns.
14 April 2026 4 min read

What to Watch - Week of 13 April 2026

Locally firm focus will be on March employment data (Thurs). NAB expects the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3% with some 25k jobs created in the month. On the global stage, the fall out from the failed US/Iran peace talks will be on watch. Read the full report here.
13 April 2026 3 min read

Sometimes the hardest thing to do… is to do nothing

Henry Jennings from Marcus Today says even with a resolution in the Middle East, every risk to markets won’t just disappear. The danger? In the wash up markets will go back to focusing on the underlying issues which have not been solved and now, could potentially be even more significant.
08 April 2026 4 min read

What to Watch - Week of 6 April 2026

It will be a quiet week locally following the Monday public holiday with focus on February household spending. Elsewhere the RBNZ meets (Weds) and inflation is in focus with CPI and PCE readings in the US and CPI in China. Read the full report here.
06 April 2026 3 min read

Global market volatility and the outlook for the Australian economy

NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld and JBWere’s Head of Asset Allocation and Portfolio Management, Glen Bertram speak with nabtrade’s Tom Piotrowski about the recent sharemarket volatility and the implications for the Australian economy. The trio discuss how the oil crisis is expected to impact economic growth and inflation locally, as well as how AI stocks and private credit funds have performed under the changing market conditions.
02 April 2026 20 min watch

The politics of oil: why Australia is paying the price

The 2026 Hormuz crisis is a story of major powers protecting their own oil supply. But Vertium Asset Management says Australia is left to absorb the consequences.
31 March 2026 3 min read

NAB Business Survey - Q1 2026: Conditions and Confidence down in Q1

Business confidence and conditions were weak in Q1 with NAB’s latest Business Survey showing confidence fell to -4 index points, touching its lowest level since December 2024, while conditions slipped 1pt to 7 index points. Under the hood, other forward-looking indicators were slightly more positive, however NAB has flagged wage costs remain the biggest issue affecting confidence. Read the full report here.
26 March 2026 3 min read

The Case for Staying the Course in Credit

As global markets continue to face volatility, Yarra Capital Management is reminded of a prescient quote from Russian revolutionary and president Vladmir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen.” Is this one of those periods where decades indeed happen?
26 March 2026 3 min read

The thin line between investing and gambling

Firstlinks’ Mark LaMonica says prediction markets are blurring the line between investing and speculation, adding savvy investors can profit from this trend by heeding the advice of famed investor, Benjamin Graham.
25 March 2026 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 23 March 2026

Inflation is the name of the game this week here at home. NAB expects headline inflation at 3.8% yoy and trimmed mean at 3.4%, though the data pre-dates the Middle East conflict. Globally, focus will remain on geopolitical risks, with G7 ministers meeting to talk on the ongoing unrest in the Middle East. Read the full plus forecasts here.
23 March 2026 2 min read

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