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Insights

Markets

Stay informed on the latest markets commentary from industry experts including Livewire, FirstLinks and Morningstar.

Latest insights

What to Watch - Week of 30 June 2025

Kicking it off here at home, focus again will be on the consumer this week ahead of Retail Sales (Weds) and Household Spending data (Fri) hitting the wires. Globally, a shortened trading week in the U.S. will see payrolls pulled forward to Thursday, and Congress will be in the spotlight with President Trump’s July 4 deadline to pass the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ looking like a challenge. Here’s your week ahead.
29 June 2025 2 min read

Are V-shaped market recoveries becoming more frequent?

April’s sharp rebound may feel familiar, but are V-shaped recoveries really more common in the post-COVID world? Man AHL has taken a look at market history, which could suggest otherwise and hints that a common bias might be skewing perceptions.
25 June 2025 3 min read

CPI Indicator lower than expected as travel prices reverse last month’s rise

Local inflation figures slowed more than expected in May with the closely watched core measure hitting a three-and-a-half year low, as travel prices and petrol dip. Overall, NAB says core measures remain mostly benign, keeping the RBA on track to cut rates in July. Swaps now imply a 90% probability the Australian central bank will cut rates by a quarter-point on July 8. Read the full report here.
25 June 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 23 June 2025

Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate the headlines this week and any fallout from the US’ strikes on Iran. Elsewhere, US Fed Chair Powell will front congress, PCE data drops (Fri) and jobless claims are released (Thurs). Bringing it back home, the monthly CPI indicator (Weds) and Job Vacancies (Thurs) are the main themes on watch. Here’s your week ahead.
22 June 2025 3 min read

Unemployment rate steady at 4.1% in May

Official unemployment figures showed a surprise 2,500 dip in May, though the jobless rate held steady at 4.1% (in-line), where it has been for over a year now. While NAB had forecast some 30k jobs to have been created in the month, looking through the volatility, trend employment growth has been averaging around 28k a month. The part rate fell back a tenth, with underemployment broadly where it was in February 2023. Read the full report here.
19 June 2025 2 min read

What to Watch - Week of 16 June

It’s all about jobs figures locally this week, with NAB tipping 30k jobs to be created in the month of May with the unemployment rate unch at 4.1%. Around the globe it will be busy. Geopolitics and central banks dominate, with the BoJ (Tues),FOMC (Weds) and BoE (Thurs). Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
15 June 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 9 June

A quiet week locally in a holiday shortened week, with the NAB Business survey and the WBC Consumer Sentiment index (Tues) the highlights. Globally, focus remains on tariff/trade developments with the data docket championed by US CPI (Weds) and PPI (Thurs) and if there are any impacts from those tariffs. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
09 June 2025 2 min read

Is there an effective line of defence against the Ringmaster?

Henry Jennings from Marcus today says Australian investors are among the lucky ones. They can pick their battles, choose when and where to invest. Cash or leverage. Sectors or themes. He does warn though, not to end up with all your eggs in a US-centric basket. That isn’t diversification.
03 June 2025 4 min read

What to Watch - Week of 2 June 2025

The week will be busy, with focus locally on Q1 GDP data (Weds), expected up 0.5%. State side, US payrolls are eyed on Friday, with trade and fiscal headlines still on watch. Elsewhere, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps while market pricing is leaning toward a hold from the BoC. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
01 June 2025 2 min read

What to Watch - Week of 26 May 2025

Inflation is the name of the game this week locally, with the monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday. On the global stage, with the US’ 90-day tariff pause still in effect, focus remains on possible trade agreements. Data is relatively heavy and Nvidia takes centre stage when it reports quarterly numbers on Wednesday. Here’s your week ahead.
25 May 2025 2 min read

Four trends that are upending portfolios

Firstlinks’ James Gruber delves into four trends that are upending portfolios now and are expected to prove long-lasting. From why 60/40 is really dead to how non-US stocks could offer upside on multiple fronts.
22 May 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 16 May 2025

It’s RBA week - with all roads pointing to an interest rate cut when the Australian central meets on Tuesday. The question is whether it will a 25bps point trim or a 50bps. The latest Statement on Monetary Policy, which provides more details on central forecasts for the economy, will also be released. Globally, US data is relatively quiet, while the retailers (Home Depot & Target) report numbers. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
19 May 2025 3 min read

Unemployment still moving sideways as employment bounces

The local employment print sharply surprised to the upside, with +89k (NAB consensus +25k) jobs added to the economy for the month of April. Unemployment remained steady at 4.1%, while both bond yields and the AUD ticked higher after the data drop. Looking ahead, NAB’s view is for a 50bp cut from the RBA when it meets next Tuesday. Read the full report here.
15 May 2025 3 min read

Reflecting on Warren Buffett's legacy

While the remarkable track record is the measurable bit of Buffett’s legacy, Fidelity International’s Tom Stevenson says it’s much bigger than the money.
14 May 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 12 May 2025

It will be a busy week on the local calendar with Q1 WPI (Weds)and the all-important jobs print on Thursday. NAB is expecting some +25k jobs to be created with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Globally, tariffs again remain the key player after US and China officials met over the weekend. Here’s your week ahead.
11 May 2025 3 min read

Can You Really Time the Market?

Is timing the market fool’s gold? Henry Jennings from Marcus Today says the nimble retail investor has a clear advantage to use the approach, especially when compared to the big fund managers.
07 May 2025 3 min read

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