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Insights

Markets

Stay informed on the latest markets commentary from industry experts including Livewire, FirstLinks and Morningstar.

Latest insights

What to Watch - Week of 16 May 2025

It’s RBA week - with all roads pointing to an interest rate cut when the Australian central meets on Tuesday. The question is whether it will a 25bps point trim or a 50bps. The latest Statement on Monetary Policy, which provides more details on central forecasts for the economy, will also be released. Globally, US data is relatively quiet, while the retailers (Home Depot & Target) report numbers. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
19 May 2025 3 min read

Unemployment still moving sideways as employment bounces

The local employment print sharply surprised to the upside, with +89k (NAB consensus +25k) jobs added to the economy for the month of April. Unemployment remained steady at 4.1%, while both bond yields and the AUD ticked higher after the data drop. Looking ahead, NAB’s view is for a 50bp cut from the RBA when it meets next Tuesday. Read the full report here.
15 May 2025 3 min read

Reflecting on Warren Buffett's legacy

While the remarkable track record is the measurable bit of Buffett’s legacy, Fidelity International’s Tom Stevenson says it’s much bigger than the money.
14 May 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 12 May 2025

It will be a busy week on the local calendar with Q1 WPI (Weds)and the all-important jobs print on Thursday. NAB is expecting some +25k jobs to be created with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Globally, tariffs again remain the key player after US and China officials met over the weekend. Here’s your week ahead.
11 May 2025 3 min read

Can You Really Time the Market?

Is timing the market fool’s gold? Henry Jennings from Marcus Today says the nimble retail investor has a clear advantage to use the approach, especially when compared to the big fund managers.
07 May 2025 3 min read

The Silver Lining in Trump’s Tariff War

US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office may have been destabilising for investors, but Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investments says this is not a crisis, financial or otherwise, but rather a short-term shock driven by uncertainty. Here’s his take.
05 May 2025 4 min read

What to Watch - Week of 5 May 2025

It will be a quieter week on the data docket, with focus on local bank earnings (WBC, NAB & ANZ). Globally, the FOMC is expected to keep rates on hold as it weighs uncertainty and a slower growth but higher inflation backdrop. In the UK, the BoE is expected to cut while Norway and Sweden are likely to hold pat.
05 May 2025 3 min read

Q1 trimmed mean a tenth above consensus but in line with RBA forecast

Australia’s core inflation slowed to a 3-year low in Q1, while a modest upside surprise to NAB’s projections, it doesn’t throw cause for changes to the policy outlook. NAB is still pencilling in a 50bps cut from the RBA in May. Looking ahead, headwinds to domestic growth and net disinflationary in Australia are expected on the back of a slower global growth environment due to substantially higher US tariff barriers, and elevated policy uncertainty. Read the full report here.
30 April 2025 4 min read

A tale of two banks: The trade Australian investors need to consider

Australian investors exhibit one of the highest levels of “home bias” globally and while there are some rational justifications for this preference, Plato Investment Management says it can come at a cost.
30 April 2025 2 min read

What to Watch - Week of 28 April 2025

Q1 CPI (Weds) dominates the local data docket in the week ahead, NAB expects the core trimmed mean print to be 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y, which would see core inflation be one tenth below the RBA’s Feb forecast track. Offshore, investors remain focused on US policy developments as President Trump closes in on his first 100 days in office. Data wise, US Q1 GDP & PCE data (Weds) and payrolls (Fri) have the potential to reflect some of the headwinds from trade/tariff uncertainty. Finally, earning season continues with heavy weights Amazon, Meta (Weds) and Apple (Thurs) the headline events.
27 April 2025 2 min read

This recently triggered market signal has never failed to predict gains

Ophir Asset Management says the signal has occurred 74 times since 1990, with US markets ending higher 1 & 5 years later 100% of the time. Here’s what to do about it.
24 April 2025 4 min read

What to Watch - Week of 21 April 2025

It is a very short week in Australia with nothing of note from the ABS or RBA ahead of the crucial Q1 CPI print next week. Globally, tariffs remain in focus, the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings in Washington and US earnings season continues in full swing with Tesla (Tues), and Microsoft and Alphabet (Fri) the headline events.
21 April 2025 3 min read

AU unemployment continued to track broadly sideways in March

Australian employment rebounded in March, recovering from a one-off dive the month before, with the unemployment rate coming in slightly below forecasts, signalling the labour market remains healthy but does not stand in the way of policy easing. Read NAB’s full report here.
17 April 2025 3 min read

What to Watch - Week of 14 April 2025

It is a holiday shortened week for most of the globe, and the dataflow will continue to take a backseat to offshore trade/financial market developments. In Australia, the RBA releases its latest meeting minutes, though they pre-date the latest intensification in global uncertainty. In the US we get retail sales plus FOMC Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Wednesday on the economic outlook. First quarter earnings also kick into gear with Goldmans (Mon), Citigroup and BofA (Tues).
14 April 2025 3 min read

Captain Chaos Blinked – have recession fears peaked?

US President Donald Trump has authorised an immediate 90-day pause on many of his new tariffs, giving somewhat of a reprieve to most of America’s trading partners. Marcus Padley from Marcus Today details what’s happened so far.
10 April 2025 2 min read

Here we are… Are we there yet?

Henry Jennings from Marcus Today says while the recent ‘shock and awe’ of global market swings was always going to be painful, investors should take note of the great Douglas Adams: “Don’t Panic.” You’ll probably do the wrong thing. Here he details what Australian investors should do amongst the turmoil.
08 April 2025 3 min read

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