Upcoming Maintenance:

nabtrade will be unavailable between HH:MM and HH:MM on DAYOFWEEK DD of MONTH for scheduled maintenance.

What to Watch - Week of 18 November

It will be a quiet week on the data docket locally, with the RBA minutes from November taking centre stage. Offshore the focus remains on the incoming Trump administration, with the drip feed of cabinet positions on watch. Finally, inflation is the topic of the week with CPI data from Canada, UK and Japan all hitting the wires.

Tapas Strickland, Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • NAB changed its RBA call to a first cut in May 2025 (from February). We also made large forecast revisions to our FX outlook, as well as revising our US Fed outlook.
  • On the data front, employment rose 15k, but payback from recent strength was modest and the trend is a robust +37k. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%.
  • In the US, CPI and PPI data continued the theme of stronger US data than the FOMC had pencilled into September dots. Powell said “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates

Week ahead

  • Quiet in Australia with only the RBA Minutes from November, and a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent. Neither are likely to be overly market moving given the plethora of RBA speak recently
  • Offshore it is also relatively quiet and most focus is still likely to be in trying to the likely policy mix and sequencing under a Trump administration. The ongoing drip feed of cabinet positions will be important
  • Global PMIs (Friday) will garner the most focus, especially in the EZ and UK. We will also be watching for any hit to sentiment in Europe from the US elections; the recent German ZEW survey suggests a large hit
  • In the US it is a mainly housing focused with permits/starts (Tuesday), along with Fed speak (Goolsbee and Hammack speak Thursday)
  • Elsewhere, it is a big week for CPIs with Canada, UK and Japan publishing October CPI figures. For Canada the data should be supportive for further rate cuts. While in Japan politics may push further normalisation into 2025.
  • China has its loan prime rates (Wednesday) with consensus for no change. It is also very quiet in NZ with no data of note

View the full report

Also in the What to Watch

 

This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. Please Click Here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. Please Click Here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.

All prices and analysis at 15 November 2024.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here. 


About the Author
NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.