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Is 'buy the dip' a foolproof strategy?

Investors can be forgiven for finding the whipsaw exhausting; volumes are relatively modest when compared with earlier periods when the market fell similar amounts. Clearly many have learned that ‘buy the dip’ is not a foolproof strategy; alternatively, the dip has simply not been big enough to tempt many to part with their cash!

The S&P500 had its worst day in two years on Tuesday, after monthly US CPI data dashed hopes that inflation had peaked, and investors were reminded that the path of monetary tightening is likely to remain steep. The ASX200 had a similarly terrible day, falling nearly 3% at the open on Wednesday, and closing down more than 2.5%. It stabilised on Thursday, but such is the current level of volatility, is actually flat over five days. Investors can be forgiven for finding the whipsaw exhausting; volumes are relatively modest when compared with earlier periods when the market fell similar amounts. Clearly many have learned that ‘buy the dip’ is not a foolproof strategy; alternatively, the dip has simply not been big enough to tempt many to part with their cash!

 

ASX200 (XJO) over five days

Source: nabtrade

 

For those who were willing to come out and play on Wednesday morning, the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) was a huge buy, over 95% by value. This has become a consistent trend on days where US markets have suffered big hits overnight; investors are keen to buy the index at a discount and will add to their holdings. The average sizes for this trade are not particularly large, as it tends to be an accumulation strategy, rather than all in. Higher conviction investors were buying the Betashares Strong Bear Hedge Fund (BBOZ) and also ETF Securities Ultra Short Nasdaq Hedge Fund (SNAS), the first time the latter has appeared in large volumes. A smaller number were buying international indices.

For those willing to stay with direct stocks, materials remain the most favoured sector by a substantial margin. While Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) is the gift that keeps on giving for those who closely track the iron ore price, Pilbara Minerals (PLS) continues to be traded in huge volumes. The stock has crashed straight through its 52 week high and has barely taken a breath in recent weeks, delivering great returns for a wide range of holders. 

 

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) shares over twelve months

  

Source: nabtrade

 

South32 (S32), rarely high in the numbers, saw huge buying on Thursday after falling more than 7% as it went ex-dividend. Lithium stocks remain hot, with Lake Resources (LKE), Allkem (AKE) and Core Lithium (CXO) still finding buyers.

Weakness usually brings out buyers for the financials sector; interestingly Macquarie Group (MQG) and Magellan Financial Group (MFG) were two of the top picks. Magellan has been under sustained pressure over the last eighteen months, and any rebound in the share price hasn’t been maintained, although it is around 10% above its recent lows. Many are hopeful that the worst of the news is priced in, and there is an opportunity for the firm, and the stock, to rebuild from this point. 

 

Magellan Financial Group (MFG) shares over twelve months

Source: nabtrade

 

On international markets, recent volatility has given committed traders an opportunity to take directional bets on the US market. Oil, semiconductors and even China ETFs have been traded actively as traders seek to eke out profits in choppy markets.

 

 

Analysis as at 15 September 2022. This information has been provided by WealthHub Securities Ltd the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 (NAB). Whilst all reasonable care has been taken by WealthHub Securities in reviewing this material, this content does not represent the view or opinions of WealthHub Securities. Any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. Any advice contained in the Information has been prepared by WealthHub Securities without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any such advice, we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances.


About the Author
Gemma Dale , nabtrade

Gemma Dale is Director of SMSF and Investor Behaviour at nabtrade. She is the host of the Your Wealth podcast, a fortnightly podcast for investors, featuring insights and updates from markets and finance experts across a range of topics. She provides regular market and finance commentary on ausbiz and in other media including AFR, the Australian, ABC and commercial tv and radio. Gemma was previously the Head of SMSF Solutions for nab, and the Head of Technical Services for MLC, where she led a team of specialists providing advice to advisers and their clients on SMSF, super, tax, social security and aged care.