What to Watch - Week of 15 December 2025

Taylor Nugent & Jessie Cameron | Markets Research 

This is the final What to Watch for the year. We will restart on 2 January 2026. Wishing you all a happy festive period!

Past Week

• The RBA held the cash rate at 3.6%, which was in line with consensus. However, the tone has shifted to a more hawkish stance, citing upside risks to inflation.
• Domestic data this week did little to alter the outlook. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% and while the NAB Business Survey reported softer confidence and conditions, capacity utilisation rose for a fourth consecutive month.
• The FOMC cut rates by 25bps to 3.5–3.75%, as widely expected. The median dot continued to signal one additional cut by end-2026.
• The ECB’s Schnabel said she was “rather comfortable” that the next move is likely higher, though not imminent, while the BoC and SNB left rates on hold.

Week ahead

• The mid-year budget update is likely at some point in the week ahead. There are no more top tier data releases this year, but Consumer confidence (Tuesday) and private credit Friday) are still to come. RBA minutes for the December meeting will be released on Tuesday 23rd.
• In NZ, it is an absolute blockbuster information week including Q3 GDP (Thursday), the Government’s Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (Tuesday), and Selected Prices (Tuesday).
• Globally, it is a big week for central banks. The ECB (Thursday) will hold rates. The BoE (Thursday) is expected to cut 25bp, and the BoJ (Friday) is now well priced for a 25bp hike. Norges and Riksbank also meet.
• It is a big week for US data, with November Payrolls and the first CPI data in nearly 2 months. Retail Sales is also released.
• In Japan, as well as the BoJ meeting, The Q4 Tankan Survey is Monday and CPI is Friday.

View the full report here. 

Also in the What to Watch

• Select Event Previews 
• Week Ahead Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts

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