What to Watch - Week of 1 December 2025

Jessica Cameron | Markets Research 

Past Week

• October CPI shows persistent broad-based inflation pressures, with risks firmly to the upside of the RBA’s November SoMP forecast. Investment partials also surprised to the upside.
• APRA to cap high-DTI lending (≥6x income) at 20% of new mortgages from Feb.
• AUD rebounded above US$0.65, driven by stronger risk sentiment/equities recovery, and widening yield differentials; second only to NZD after RBNZ signalled end of easing.
• RBNZ cut OCR by 25bp to 2.25%; terminal rate projected at 2.20%, signalling high hurdle for further easing.
• UK Autumn Budget lifts taxes by £26bn, tax burden to record 38% of GDP; larger-than-expected fiscal buffer (£22bn) and reduced gilt issuance support markets.
• Odds of Dec FOMC cut rise (from ~35% last Thursday to just over 80%) on comments by NY Fed President Williams and softer data.

Week ahead

• Australia: Q3 GDP (Wednesday) in focus; forecast lifted to 0.7% q/q on stronger investment partials, with inventories (Monday) and trade/government spending (Tuesday) to firm up the estimate.
• In NZ, Dr Anna Breman starts as the RBNZ Governor Monday. More Q3 GDP partials: International Trade (Tuesday) and Building Work Put in Place (Thursday). Other data releases include GDT Dairy Auction and ANZ Commodity Price Index (Wednesday), building consents (Monday) and Government’s Financial Statements (Thursday).
• In the US, personal income & outlays (Friday) for PCE inflation; September industrial production and labour market indicators (ADP, jobless claims, Challenger lay-offs) in focus; Fed enters blackout period Saturday.
• Global activity: ISM surveys to provide a fresh read on US activity after resilient PMI; China PMIs (NBS, RatingDog) to gauge whether activity is stabilising; final PMIs due for Eurozone, Japan and UK.
• In Japan, Governor Ueda’s upcoming speech may offer clarity on the BoJ’s rate hike timing.

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts 

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