What to Watch - Week of 27 October 2025

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

• Australia and the US signed a bilateral framework on critical minerals and rare earths. Both countries have committed to provide at least $US1bn towards projects over the next six months.
• The chances of a 25bp rate cut from the BOE (from 4.0% to 3.75%) on 6 November is now around 35% priced following lower-than-expected inflation in September (3.8% yoy vs consensus 4.0% yoy).

Week ahead

• Q3 CPI data is released on Wednesday. We expect it to confirm a material surprise to the RBA’s August forecast. We see trimmed mean at 0.9% qoq and headline at 1.1% qoq (Full Preview). Consensus is 0.8% qoq for trimmed mean.
• Central banks dominate the global calendar with the FOMC and BoC (Wednesday) and ECB and BoJ (Thursday).
• In NZ, data include filled jobs (Tuesday), ANZ business (Thursday) and consumer confidence (Friday). RBNZ Governor Hawkesby speaks Wednesday.
• Trump visits Asia and is set to meet China’s Xi Thursday alongside the APEC Summit. The meeting comes ahead of the threatened 1 November 100ppt increase in US tariffs on China.
• The US Government shutdown continues. Advanced goods trade (Tuesday) and Personal Spending and Consumption (Friday) the next releases at risk.
• Earnings season continues and includes Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft (Wednesday) and Apple and Amazon (Thursday)
• Eurozone advance Q3 GDP is Wednesday, and preliminary October CPI is Friday.

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Select Event Previews
• Week Ahead Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts 

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