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What to Watch - Week of 29 September

Interest rates are the name of the game locally in the week ahead, with the RBA all but certain to keep the official benchmark on hold, with NAB expecting Governor Bullock to acknowledge upside risk on inflation in the press conference following the decision. Globally, US payrolls on Friday (unless delayed by a government shutdown) and Eurozone preliminary CPI. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
NAB Markets Research
29 September 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 4 min read

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • The detail in the August CPI Indicator was ugly
  • Market services inflation to be hot in Q3, driving a sharp upside surprise to the RBA’s Q3 trimmed mean forecast
  • NAB now expects the RBA to be on hold until May 2026
  • Market pricing has pared to 10bp from 20bp for the November meeting

Week ahead

  • The RBA will be on hold Tuesday. Expect Bullock in the press conference to acknowledge upside risk on inflation but defer to the full CPI ahead of the November meeting for confirmation. The Financial Stability Review is published Thursday.
  • On the data side, August outcomes for monthly household spending, goods trade, building approvals and private sector credit are released.
  • In NZ, data include filled job (Monday), ANZ Business Confidence (Tuesday) and Building Consents (Wednesday).
  • Offshore, the key focus is US Payrolls on Friday (unless delayed by a government shutdown) and Eurozone preliminary CPI
  • For the US, political focus is on the looming (midnight Tuesday) deadline for a government shutdown. Also watch for tariff news, with Trump’s announcements today set to begin 1 October. As well as Payrolls is JOLTS, ADP and ISMs
  • Elsewhere, Euro Area preliminary CPI on Wednesday is the focus. Final PMIs are out during the week. In China, PMIs are Tuesday, ahead of Golden Week Holidays from Wednesday. Japan’s Tankan Survey is out Wednesday.
  • ECB and FOMC officials are also out in force during the week.

View the full report here. 

Also in the What to Watch

 

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.