What to Watch - Week of 22 September

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

• The labour force data for June saw the unemployment rate unchanged but further signs of a trend slowing in employment growth.
• The US Fed cut lowered the Fed Funds rate by 25bp. The median Fed member, as do we, expects another 50bp of cuts by the end of the year.
• The AUD will end the week around US66c after briefly touching US67c in the wake of the FOMC meeting.

Week ahead

• The monthly CPI indicator for August is expected to remain steady at 2.8% yoy. That would be broadly consistent with our expectation of 0.7% qoq for Q3 underlying inflation and broadly in line with RBA expectations.
• RBA Governor Bullock will appear before the House Standing Committee on Economics and ABS Job Vacancies will be released.
• Offshore, the focus will be on US activity and inflation data, the preliminary S&P Global PMIs and central bank speak:
  • For the US, the Thursday durable goods orders, advance economic indicator reports and Friday personal incomes & spending reports feed into Q3 GDP tracking. The personal income report will also provide the latest read on PCE inflation.
  • The preliminary S&P Global PMIs are released Tuesday for the Euro-zone, UK and US, and Wednesday for Japan.
  • There are a range of speakers from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England. For the Fed, this includes the recently appointed Miran, and only dissent at this week's meeting, and Williams, while Bank of England Governor Bailey is also speaking.
  • The Swedish Riksbank (Tuesday) and Swiss National Bank (Thursday) also meet (no changes expected).

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Select Economic Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts 

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