What to Watch - Week of 15 September

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

• The NAB Business Survey showed conditions and confidence around their long run average levels.
• Both business conditions and confidence in Victoria were positive in trend terms for the first time since May 2024
• The AUD has been an outperformer over the week and made new year to date highs after US CPI last night.

Week ahead

• We expect the unemployment rate (Thursday) at 4.3% (from 4.24%) on a 25k employment gain. The RBA’s Hunter speaks Tuesday.
• In NZ, BNZ expect Q2 GDP on Thursday to show a 0.5% qoq fall to be 0.2% lower over the year. Also out during the week are PSI (Monday), Selected Prices Indicators (Tuesday), Balance of Payments (Wednesday) and Merchandise Trade (Friday).
• Offshore, it is all about central banks, key meetings include:
  • The FOMC: Wednesday, 25bp cut to 4.0%-4.25%, with focus on dissents and the new dots
  • The Bank of Japan: Friday, hold at 0.5%, no new forecasts
  • The Bank of England: Thursday, hold at 4.0%, no new forecasts
  • The Bank of Canada: Wednesday, likely 25bp cut to 2.5%
• In the US, Retail Sales provides an August pulse on the consumer on Tuesday, along with import prices and industrial production. Jobless claims are in focus Thursday.
• In the UK, ahead of the BoE are labour market data (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday).
• In Europe, ECB’s speakers are out in force, including Lagarde Wednesday and Thursday. On the data side is the ZEW survey (Tuesday) as well as final CPI and the ECB’s Wage tracker.
• In China, August monthly activity readings including Retail Sales and Industrial Production are Monday. Also be on the lookout for a potential adjustment to the 7 day reverse repo rate ahead of Loan Prime Rates on 22 September.
• Japan CPI is Friday and trade data is Wednesday.

View the full report here. 

Also in the What to Watch

• Select Economic Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts

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