What to Watch - Week of 4 August 2025

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past Week

• Australian Q2 CPI gave a green light to an RBA August interest rate cut, though the details suggested some caution should remain
• Also in good news, there was a sharp turn positive in the data flow with Retail Sales, Building Approvals and Credit all beating expectations
• Offshore the US data flow remained strong, Fed Chair Powell sounded less dovish or mildly hawkish, while President Trump finalised tariffs: Australia is confirmed at 10% and New Zealand at 15%

Week ahead

• Australia has a quiet week ahead of the RBA Meeting the following week (11-12 August). The only top-tier piece is the Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Tuesday) which should rise 0.9% m/m (consensus 0.8%)
• Plenty of second-tier data, including the Goods Trade Balance (Thursday). Note it is also a NSW Bank Holiday on Monday, meaning thinner than usual markets on Monday. 
• Offshore it is fairly quiet with the Northern Hemisphere Summer Holiday season in full flight. Major items include: 
   
  • fallout from US President Trump’s finalisation of tariff rates
  • the BoE meets (Thursday) where a 25bp cut is widely expected
  • earnings continue, including AMD and Disney 
• US has the ISM Services (Tuesday) and Productivity (Thursday). There is a smattering of Fed speakers, but we expect the schedule to fill out further given there are clear divergences on the FOMC.
• Europe is a desert data wise
• In China the S&P Global Services PMI (Tuesday; formally Caixin PMI) where another soft outcome is likely. The Trade Balance (Thursday) is also likely to garner attention.
• Across the ditch, in NZ, are Unemployment/Employment (Wednesday) and Inflation Expectations (Friday)

Read the full report here

Chart 1: Australian core inflation close to the 2-3% mid-point

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