What to Watch - Week of 18 August 2025

Past Week

• The RBA cut rates as widely expected on Tuesday, the SoMP and presser were not hawkish
• Australian dataflow did not support the need to rush to a follow up September rate cut with the unemployment rate ticking back down
• Yields and the USD were broadly steady on the week. A US CPI which showed little tariff pass through was offset by a hot PPI

Week ahead

• In Australia data is quiet with only the second-tier monthly W-MI Consumer Confidence (Tuesday). Politics on the radar though given the Australian Treasurer’s ‘Economic Reform Roundtable’ (Tuesday thru Thursday)
• Offshore, expect focus on three arears:
  • (1) fallout from Presidents Trump-Putin summit in Alaska and whether it supports Russia-Ukraine de-escalation with potential implications for oil supply and secondary tariffs on India;
  • (2) US Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (from Thursday) and whether Powell (Friday) is supportive of a September interest rate cut; and
  • (3) earnings from Home Depot (Tuesday) and Walmart (Thursday) for judging how the US consumer is fairing.
• As for dataflow, in the US it is mostly second tier with Housing Starts/Permits (Tuesday). The FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) are unlikely to contain much new. There are also some longer-end debt auctions
• In Europe, the summer holiday season continues, though the Global PMIs (Thursday) are an important data point as are Negotiated Wages (Friday)
• UK has CPI (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Friday). China is quiet with the Loan Prime Rates (Wednesday) expected to be unchanged.
• Japan is busy with CPI (Friday) under the microscope, especially with markets only pricing a cumulative 16.2bps of hikes by the end of the year.
• Finally, in NZ, the RBNZ (Wednesday) meets where a rate cut is universally expected.

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