What to Watch - Week of 11 August 2025

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past week

• Australian data flow has been relatively quiet. Two items worth noting are that gold exports rose to be Australia’s third largest commodity export in June, and household spending volumes rose a very solid 0.7% q/q
• Speculation on who the next US Fed Chair would be intensified. In the end we are no clearer with President Trump instead opting to nominate Stephen Miran as Governor to serve the remaining term of Adriana Kugler
• Yields were broadly steady to higher on the week with tepid results for US Treasury Auctions being seen for 3yr, 10yr and 30yr tenors

Week ahead

• Australia has the RBA on Tuesday and is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.60%, after Governor Bullock guided markets to watch Q2 CPI.
• With the cash rate headed into the realms of neutral, we expect the RBA to convey a less dovish tone that would not lean to an automatic follow up cut in September.
• Plenty of dataflow too. We expect Unemployment (Thursday) to tick down to 4.2% from 4.3% and for the WPI (Wednesday) to see growth of 0.8% q/q. The NAB Business Survey (Tuesday) is also out.
• Offshore focus will be back on the data, particularly US data flow with CPI (Tuesday), PPI (Thursday) and Retail Sales (Friday)
• Europe remains on summer holidays, though across the channel the UK has labour market data (Tuesday) and GDP (Thursday)
• In China, CPI/PPI (Saturday) and then the monthly activity indicators of Retail Sales, Industrial Production (Friday)
• Across the ditch, in NZ, are Selected Prices and the BNZ PMI (Friday)

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All prices and analysis at 8 August 2025.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.