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What to Watch - Week of 7 July 2025

Markets were relatively calm last week, with geopolitical tensions taking a back seat and strong US payroll data reinforcing the Fed’s patient stance on rates. In Australia, attention turns to the upcoming RBA meeting, where a potential 25bp rate cut is in focus. Globally, trade talks, inflation data, and central bank decisions remain key drivers to watch. Read on for more.
NAB Markets Research
08 July 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 4 min read

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past week

  • For a change, geopolitical tensions were not a large driver of markets over the past week
  • US Payrolls beat expectations, the data overall reinforces the Fed can afford to wait to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation
  • In Australia, the Household Spending Indicator rebounded more than expected at 0.9% m/m. vs. 0.5% consensus

Week ahead

  • In Australia, all eyes are on the RBA Meeting (Tuesday). NAB and the consensus expects the RBA to cut rates by 25bps in what we think will be a decision between holding or cutting by 25bps. Markets price 23.8bps
  • We also expect less dovish guidance given the RBA is unlikely to want to sound pre-committed and the policy rate if it is cut to 3.60% will be within the range of the RBA’s neutral estimates
  • Globally, trade tensions dominate with the US’ self-imposed deadline of July 9 (Wednesday) for trade deals looming. OPEC+ and the BRICs (Sunday) are also meeting with OPEC+ contemplating a further rise in oil production
  • In the US the NFIB Small Business Survey (Tuesday), NY Fed Inflation Expectations (Tuesday), FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday) are the highlights of the second-tier data
  • North in Canada is Employment (Friday). Europe is also very quiet. The only significant piece of data is UK Monthly GDP (Friday)
  • In China the PPI/CPI (Wednesday) will likely show continued disinflation, and Aggregate Financing figures are due anytime in the week.

Read the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

 

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All prices and analysis at 7 July 2025. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here. 

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.