What to Watch - Week of 7 July 2025

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past week

• For a change, geopolitical tensions were not a large driver of markets over the past week
• US Payrolls beat expectations, the data overall reinforces the Fed can afford to wait to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation
• In Australia, the Household Spending Indicator rebounded more than expected at 0.9% m/m. vs. 0.5% consensus

Week ahead

• In Australia, all eyes are on the RBA Meeting (Tuesday). NAB and the consensus expects the RBA to cut rates by 25bps in what we think will be a decision between holding or cutting by 25bps. Markets price 23.8bps
• We also expect less dovish guidance given the RBA is unlikely to want to sound pre-committed and the policy rate if it is cut to 3.60% will be within the range of the RBA’s neutral estimates
• Globally, trade tensions dominate with the US’ self-imposed deadline of July 9 (Wednesday) for trade deals looming. OPEC+ and the BRICs (Sunday) are also meeting with OPEC+ contemplating a further rise in oil production
• In the US the NFIB Small Business Survey (Tuesday), NY Fed Inflation Expectations (Tuesday), FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday) are the highlights of the second-tier data
• North in Canada is Employment (Friday). Europe is also very quiet. The only significant piece of data is UK Monthly GDP (Friday)
• In China the PPI/CPI (Wednesday) will likely show continued disinflation, and Aggregate Financing figures are due anytime in the week.

Read the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts 

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