What to Watch - Week of 28 July 2025

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past week

• RBA commentary dominated the week with Governor Bullock’s Anika Foundation remarks taken as slightly hawkish
• Offshore, risk sentiment remained positive. Helping bolster sentiment was a US-Japan trade announcement
• Intense pressure on the US Fed Chair eased slightly with US Treasury Secretary Bessent stating he saw no reason for Powell to resign

Week ahead

• Australia’s Q2 CPI (Wednesday) looms large. NAB and the consensus looks for a trimmed mean print of 0.7% q/q and 2.7% y/y, which would be one-tenth above the RBA’s May SoMP forecast of 0.6%/2.6%
• We won’t have to wait long to glean how the RBA may interpret it with Deputy Governor Hauser in a fireside chat the next day (Thursday). Other data includes Retail Sales, Building Approvals and Credit (all Thursday)
• Offshore it is an extremely full calendar:
  • Central banks dominate with the BoC (Tuesday), FOMC (Wednesday) and BoJ (Thursday). All are expected to be on hold
  • US’ self-imposed tariff deadline of August 1 (Friday), though trade talks are scheduled with China (Monday) and US-EU progress is reported
  • Earnings also top of mind with Microsoft, Meta (Wednesday) and Amazon, Apple (Thursday)
• US has a busy week with Q2 GDP (Wednesday), PCE (Thursday), Payrolls and the ISM Manufacturing (Friday). Consensus sees Q2 GDP at 2.5% quarterly annualised and for unemployment to reverse last month’s fall
• Europe also has Q2 GDP (Wednesday) and CPI figures (Friday)
• In China the PMIs (Thursday) is the most significant data piece, though it may take a backseat given signs of fiscal stimulus
• Across the ditch, in NZ, Job Indicators (Monday) and the ANZ Business Survey (Tuesday) are the most notable.

Read the full report here

Chart 1: Data is disappointing expectations in Australia

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