What to Watch - Week of 14 July 2025

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past week

• The RBA surprised with a hold, evidently less comfortable easing to protect the tentative growth recovery than we had expected
• Market pricing now has terminal around 3.05%, up from 2.91% a week ago. NAB continues to see rates falling to 3.1%, now seen by February (previously November)
• Offshore, focus has been on tariff headlines, but markets have tended to be sceptical headlines reflect much more than negotiation posturing.

Week ahead

• Australia Employment data is Thursday, where we and consensus look for unemployment steady at 4.1%, though survey subsamples flag the risk of a tick higher after a few months of remarkable stability
• Also of note is consumer confidence Tuesday. PM Albanese is in China all week, which could generate some headlines.
• In NZ, the PSI is Tuesday and Selected Price Indicators are Thursday
• Tariff news will continue to be in focus, including whether the EU can progress an in-principle deal towards a 10% tariff. Trump has threatened letters for Canada and the EU today or tomorrow.
• Inflation is the focus of US data flow for signs earlier tariff increases are flowing through into domestic prices. CPI (Tuesday), PPI (Wednesday) and Import prices (Thursday) should together shed some light on where pressures are being absorbed. Retail Sales (Thursday) and Consumer Sentiment (Friday) are also of note. Earnings season kicks off and includes major banks this week.
• In the UK, CPI (Wednesday) and labour market and earnings data (Thursday) are the focus, alongside Mansion House speeches by Reeves and Bailey (Tuesday)
• Chinese GDP and June activity data are Tuesday, with the early consensus for quarterly growth near 1%.
• It is a quiet data calendar in the Euro area, Japan sees CPI on Friday

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview
• Weekly Calendar
• NAB Research Forecasts

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