Upcoming Maintenance:

Some functionality may be unavailable between 01:00 and 12:00 on Sunday 22nd of June for scheduled maintenance.

What to Watch - Week of 30 June 2025

Kicking it off here at home, focus again will be on the consumer this week ahead of Retail Sales (Weds) and Household Spending data (Fri) hitting the wires. Globally, a shortened trading week in the U.S. will see payrolls pulled forward to Thursday, and Congress will be in the spotlight with President Trump’s July 4 deadline to pass the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ looking like a challenge. Here’s your week ahead.

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • Domestically it was all about the Monthly CPI Indicator for May which printed below expectations at 2.1% y/y vs. 2.3% consensus (NAB 2.2%).
  • In response, a few banks pulled forward their RBA rate call to July, matching NAB’s original call. Market pricing of course was already there.
  • US policy uncertainty may be starting to lessen with US Treasury Secretary Bessent recommending the withdrawal of the proposed s899

Week ahead

  • In Australia, consumer momentum will be in focus with Retal Sales (Wednesday) and the Household Spending Indicator (Friday). Elsewhere, Credit, Building Approvals, and the Goods Trade fill out the calendar.
  • In New Zealand, the May employment indicators (Monday) and the NZIER QSBO survey (Tuesday) are the pick of the data calendar.
  • In the US, stock and bond markets are closed for Independence Day (Friday). Payrolls are pulled forward to Thursday, where consensus looks for a tick higher in the unemployment rate. Also out are JOLTS, ADP, and ISMs.
  • Congress will be in the spotlight with Trump’s 4 July deadline to pass the Big Beautiful Bill looking like a challenge.
  • In Europe, preliminary June CPI on Tuesday headlines, preceded by the German and Italian numbers Monday. Final PMIs are also out
  • The ECB’s Sintra Forum runs Monday through Wednesday. With a policy panel featuring Powell, Lagarde, Bailey and Ueda Tuesday the headliner.
  • China June PMI data will be parsed for any evidence the US China trade reset has eased pressure on manufacturers. In Japan, the Q2 Tankan Survey is out Tuesday

Read the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

 

This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. Please Click Here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. Please Click Here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.

All prices and analysis at 27 June 2025.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here. 


About the Author
NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.