What to Watch - Week of 30 June 2025

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

• Domestically it was all about the Monthly CPI Indicator for May which printed below expectations at 2.1% y/y vs. 2.3% consensus (NAB 2.2%).
• In response, a few banks pulled forward their RBA rate call to July, matching NAB’s original call. Market pricing of course was already there.
• US policy uncertainty may be starting to lessen with US Treasury Secretary Bessent recommending the withdrawal of the proposed s899

Week ahead

• In Australia, consumer momentum will be in focus with Retal Sales (Wednesday) and the Household Spending Indicator (Friday). Elsewhere, Credit, Building Approvals, and the Goods Trade fill out the calendar.
• In New Zealand, the May employment indicators (Monday) and the NZIER QSBO survey (Tuesday) are the pick of the data calendar.
• In the US, stock and bond markets are closed for Independence Day (Friday). Payrolls are pulled forward to Thursday, where consensus looks for a tick higher in the unemployment rate. Also out are JOLTS, ADP, and ISMs.
• Congress will be in the spotlight with Trump’s 4 July deadline to pass the Big Beautiful Bill looking like a challenge.
• In Europe, preliminary June CPI on Tuesday headlines, preceded by the German and Italian numbers Monday. Final PMIs are also out
• The ECB’s Sintra Forum runs Monday through Wednesday. With a policy panel featuring Powell, Lagarde, Bailey and Ueda Tuesday the headliner.
• China June PMI data will be parsed for any evidence the US China trade reset has eased pressure on manufacturers. In Japan, the Q2 Tankan Survey is out Tuesday

Read the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts 

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