What to Watch - Week of 2 June 2025
Taylor Nugent | Markets Research
Past Week
- The April Monthly CPI Indicator held at 2.4%, with a surprise jump in new dwelling inflation the most notable data point
- Question marks remain on the strength of the consumer recovery. Retail sales were soft, though warm weather weighed on clothing spending
- The AUD underperformed against a broadly stronger US dollar, down 0.9% at 0.6431.
Week ahead
- In Australia Q1 GDP is expected up 0.5% q/q on Wednesday. Elsewhere, final partials are Tuesday, April spending and trade data are Thursday. Also on Tuesday, the FWC hands down the award wage decision, the RBA Minutes are released and the RBA’s Hunter speaks.
- US Payrolls are Friday, with job opening, ADP payrolls, and jobless claims out Tuesday to Thursday. ISM manufacturing (Monday) and services (Wednesday) fill out the data flow.
- Fed speakers include Waller and Powell (Monday) and the Beige book is published. Trade and fiscal headlines also remain in focus.
- The ECB is expected to cut rates 25bp to 2.0% on Thursday. Final global PMIs are also released.
- Market pricing leans towards a hold from the BoC, though there is still 7bps of cuts priced. Canadian employment data is Friday.
- In China, after official PMIs on Saturday the Caixin versions follow during the week
- Japan gets labour cash earnings data and BoJ’s Ueda speaks.
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