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What to Watch - Week of 16 June

It’s all about jobs figures locally this week, with NAB tipping 30k jobs to be created in the month of May with the unemployment rate unch at 4.1%. Around the globe it will be busy. Geopolitics and central banks dominate, with the BoJ (Tues),FOMC (Weds) and BoE (Thurs). Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
NAB Markets Research
16 June 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Tapas Strickland & Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • Australian consumer confidence and the NAB Business Survey continued to suggest risk lays to the downside of the RBA’s May activity forecasts
  • Though NABs spending data for May tentatively suggests some improvement in consumption growth from the sluggish start to 2025
  • In the US, CPI and PPI data was softer than expected. There are 55bp of cuts priced this year. Late in the week Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran.

Week ahead

  • Australia has Employment figures for May (Thursday). We pencil in 30k jobs and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1% (consensus 20k/4.1%). Note election hiring may have boosted employment in May
  • Globally, it is busy with lots of focus on geopolitics given Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. Key will be the degree of retaliation and thereafter any tit-for-tat retaliation. In that context G7 Leaders meet (Sunday through Tuesday)
  • Central banks also dominate BoJ (Tuesday), FOMC (Wednesday), Riksbank (Wednesday), BoE (Thursday), Norgesbank (Thursday) and SNB (Thursday) all meeting. However, only the Riksbank and SNB are expected to cut rates
  • US is holiday shortened with the Juneteenth Holiday (Thursday), meaning markets are closed and thin trading is also likely on Friday. Before then is the FOMC (hold), Retail Sales (Tuesday) and Senate budget discussions
  • In Europe the BoE (Thursday) is expected to be on hold. Datawise UK CPI (Wednesday) is the focal point given the sharper than expected rise last month due to administered prices and the shifting timing of Easter
  • China has the monthly activity indicators of Retail Sales and Industrial Production (Monday), while across the seas in Japan the BoJ meets with policy widely expected to be on hold and where CPI (Friday) remains high
  • In NZ it is all about Q1 GDP (Thursday) and where consensus is for a 0.7% q/q rise. Price Indicators (Tuesday) though worth a look and note it is also a public holiday on Friday

Read the full report here

Chart 1: Data is disappointing expectations in Australia and the US

Chart 2: G7 is meeting where military spending is under focus with the US wanting its allies to lift spending to at least 3.5% of GDP (including for Australia)

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.