Upcoming Maintenance:

Please be advised that some functionality may be unavailable from 05:00 and 12:00 on Sunday 25th of May for scheduled maintenance.

search search

What to Watch - Week of 26 May 2025

Inflation is the name of the game this week locally, with the monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday. On the global stage, with the US’ 90-day tariff pause still in effect, focus remains on possible trade agreements. Data is relatively heavy and Nvidia takes centre stage when it reports quarterly numbers on Wednesday. Here’s your week ahead.
NAB Markets Research
26 May 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 2 min read

Tapas Strickland & Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • The RBA cut 25bp as widely expected, though the SoMP and communication was more dovish than expected
  • Markets price additional easing from the RBA, with a July cut now 16bp priced and terminal around 3.05%
  • The US fiscal trajectory has been in focus, with curves steeper and the USD weaker

Week ahead

  • In Australia, two top-tier data pieces are the Monthly CPI Indicator (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Friday), both for April. Note the first month CPI indicator is goods heavy. Pre-GDP construction partials also.
  • There is plenty of second-tier Australian data too including, Building Approvals and Credit (both Friday). On the central bank front, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser is on a panel at the BoJ-IMES conference (Tuesday)
  • Globally, with the US’ 90-day tariff pause still in effect, focus remains on possible trade agreements. US and Japanese bond auctions also under focus given recent soft outcomes (the US has 5yr and 7yr actions and Japan a 40yr action), as will be the CBO’s costings of the ‘big beautiful tax bill’
  • US data is relatively heavy, but the week starts very quiet with the Memorial Day Public Holiday (Monday) with markets closed. Durables (Tuesday), 2nd read on Q1 GDP (Thursday) and PCE (Friday) are the major data pieces. Nvidia also reports (Wednesday)
  • EZ/UK is extremely quiet with no top-tier data. The UK has its Spring Bank Holiday (Monday), while country-level preliminary CPIs are out for Germany/Spain/Italy (Friday)
  • In NZ the RBNZ (Wednesday) and is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.25%. There is also plenty of data, including filled jobs (Wednesday), ANZ Business Survey (Thursday) and Building Permits (Friday).
  • Finally, in China it is quiet data wise with only Industrial Profits.

View the full report here

Chart 1: Yields under focus with term premium having risen

Chart 2: Data flow relative to expectations has improved

This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. Please Click Here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. Please Click Here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.

All prices and analysis at 23 May 2025.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.

Markets NAB Markets Research
About the Author
NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.