What to Watch - Week of 21 July 2025

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past week

• Unemployment rose to 4.3% in June. That should see the RBA worry a little less about retightening and a little more about unnecessary cooling
• US inflation data showed passthrough of tariffs to goods prices, but some offsets in easing pressures elsewhere
• NAB Economics published the latest Australia Forward View, Global Forward View, and Q2 CPI Preview.

Week ahead

• Australia is quiet for data flow, with the RBA Minutes (Tuesday) and RBA Governor Bullock’s annual Anika Foundation address (Thursday) the focus.
• In NZ, Q2 CPI (Monday) is expected to show stronger inflation than the RBNZ expected in May but not stand in the way of an August cut. BNZ expect 0.8% qoq and 2.9% yoy. Trade data is Tuesday and RBNZ’s Conway speaks Thursday.
• It is second tier data in the US, with a number of housing indicators, and the FOMC is in communication blackout. It is a busy week for earnings, with the highlights including Alphabet, Tesla, Coca Cola and IBM.
• On geopolitics and trade, Bessent visits Japan Saturday. Japan’s Upper House elections are Sunday. An EU-China summit takes place in Beijing on Thursday. Trump visits Scotland from Friday.
• In Europe, the ECB meets Wednesday, with a hold widely expected and fully priced. The Q2 bank lending survey is Tuesday. On the data side, global PMIs are in focus (Thursday).
• Elsewhere, UK retail sales and Tokyo CPI are both Friday.
   

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview
• Weekly Calendar
• NAB Research Forecasts

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