Tapas Strickland | Markets Research
Past Week
- The US’s Liberation Day tariffs have swamped domestic developments. The tariffs announced were larger than what most analysts had been expecting and there has been a sharp selloff in risk assets
- Many analysts have downgraded their US growth projections and recession odds are increasing. NAB today revised down its US growth forecasts to 0.6% over 2025
- If it wasn’t for the headwinds offshore, RBA pricing wouldn’t have moved as sharply as it has over the past week. Markets currently price a cumulate 102bps of cuts by the end of 2025
Week ahead
- In Australia it is quiet with the NAB Business Survey and W-MI Consumer Confidence (both Tuesday). Note the survey period for the NAB Survey precedes the latest US tariffs and equity market sell-off
- RBA Governor Bullock also speaks (Thursday) and will no doubt be quizzed about the deteriorating global backdrop and what that might mean for monetary policy – markets now price a cum. 102bps of cuts by end 2025
- Offshore, all focus remains on the imposition of US tariffs with the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs due to be effective from April 5 for the baseline 10%, and the higher tariffs from April 9.
- US data sees CPI for March (Thursday), PPI for March (Friday) and the Uni. Mich. Consumer Sentiment (also Friday). It may be too early to see tariff impacts on CPI/PPI. Inflation expectations will also be closely watched
- In Europe it is mostly quiet with focus instead on the political reaction to the US tariffs and what form of retaliation is likely. EZ/EU trade ministers meet (Monday) as do finance ministers and the ECB’s Lagarde (Friday)
- In China, the focus again is going to be on potential retaliation to the US’ tariffs, and on any fiscal/monetary response. Datawise CPI/PPI (Thursday) will take a back seat, as will Aggregate Financing figures
- The RBNZ meets (Wednesday) and a 25bp cut is widely expected. The RBNZ’s interpretation of the deteriorating global backdrop also worth looking at
|
Chart 1: US recession probabilities have increased
Chart 1: RBA pricing has moved sharply over the past couple of days
This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. Please Click Here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. Please Click Here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.
All prices and analysis at 4 April 2025. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer. This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.
|
