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What to Watch - Week of 14 April 2025

It is a holiday shortened week for most of the globe, and the dataflow will continue to take a backseat to offshore trade/financial market developments. In Australia, the RBA releases its latest meeting minutes, though they pre-date the latest intensification in global uncertainty. In the US we get retail sales plus FOMC Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Wednesday on the economic outlook. First quarter earnings also kick into gear with Goldmans (Mon), Citigroup and BofA (Tues).
NAB Markets Research
14 April 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past Week

  • US trade policy uncertainty continues to swamp domestic developments. Markets have been extremely volatile reacting to headlines
  • US exceptionalism appears to be waning with the USD (DXY -2.4%) falling even as yields have risen sharply (US 10yr +45.2bps to 4.45%)
  • NAB revised its RBA call, now expecting the RBA to cut by 50bps in May, followed by 25bps in July, August, November and February to 2.60%

Week ahead

  • A holiday-shortened week in Australia (and many parts of the world) with Easter Friday (18 April) and Easter Monday (21 April). Dataflow will continue to take a backseat to offshore trade/financial market developments
  • RBA Minutes (Tuesday) pre-date the latest intensification in global uncertainty. Labour Force (Thursday) will also not give a clear read - the reference week spans Cyclone Alfred’s impact on Southeast QLD/NSW
  • Offshore, all focus remains on the US Policy Developments with the US now having a 145% tariff on China. President Trump has also flagged an announcement on pharmaceutical tariffs
  • Top-tier data in the US includes Retail Sales (Wednesday). However, second-tier data is likely to gain more prominence for a more real-time read. The Fed’s Powell (Wednesday) is speaking on the economic outlook
  • Helping to shape the outlook will be Q1 earnings – Goldmans (Monday), Citigroup and BofA (Tuesday). The first of the big global tech names also report: ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday)
  • In Europe the ECB (Thursday) is expected to cut rates by 25bps in a close decision. Across the Atlantic the BoC also meets in what will be a very uncertain meeting
  • In China, there is important data (Trade Balance Monday, Q1 GDP Wednesday), but again will take a backseat to trade developments
  • If it wasn’t for global trade/tariff uncertainty, Q1 CPI in NZ (Thursday) would get a louder mention

View the full report here

Chart 1: USD is falling even as US yields are rising

Chart 2: NAB recently revised its RBA view

 

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