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What to Watch - Week of 31 March 2025

It’s all about the RBA’s interest rate decision this week, where it’s widely expected to keep rates on hold as it waits for more data on inflation. Elsewhere, retail sales and dwelling prices will be closely watched. Offshore, ‘Liberation Day’ is in firm focus, as reciprocal tariffs come into effect on April 2 in the US, in Europe prelim CPI dominates and China’s official PMIs are released.
NAB Markets Research
31 March 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Past Week

  • The Australian budget came and went with comparatively little fanfare earlier this week and an election has now been called for 3 May.
  • February CPI Indicator was 2.4% y/y, in line with our forecast, leaving our expectation for a 0.6% q/q trimmed mean on 30 April unchanged.
  • Offshore, new 25% tariffs on autos were the news of the week, set to take effect on 3 April.

Week ahead

  • In Australia, the RBA meets (Tuesday) and is widely expected to be on hold, as it waits for more information on inflation (Q1 CPI April 30) and wages growth (Q1 WPI May 14). RBA’s Kent (Wednesday) also gives a likely update on the RBA’s transition to a new ample-reserves system.
  • Australian data flow is heavy, with most focus on Retail Sales (Tuesday). Also of interest will be Credit (Monday) as well as Dwelling Prices (Tuesday) to see whether Melbourne prices continue to stabilise.
  • Offshore, all focus is on the US’ ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs (April 2). It is still unclear how large tariffs will be and what countries will be impacted. Note the earlier announced auto tariffs take also take effect this week. 
  • Also out in the US are JOLTS (Tuesday), Payrolls (Friday) and the ISMs (Tuesday and Thursday). Fed Chair Powell rounds up the week (Friday)
  • In Europe the prelim CPI (Tuesday) dominates and where the consensus expects core CPI to be 2.5% y/y. There is plenty of ECB speak with the ECB hosting an AI Conference (Tuesday)
  • For China the Official PMIs (Monday) would generally headline, but given the proximity of the US’ reciprocal tariffs (April 2), trade and possible retaliation will dominate
  • NZ sees the ANZ Business Survey (Tuesday) and a temporary central bank governor is also expected to be appointed

View the full report here

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