Past Week
- Australian labour market data for February was noisy with employment falling sharply (-52.8k vs. +30k expected), but we think this was more reflective of noise given the part rate fell 0.4 points to 66.8%.
- The unemployment rate (which tends to be less impacted by noise) was unchanged at 4.1%. Markets lifted rate cut pricing slightly with a May rate cut now 74% priced (or 18.5bps), up from 64% prior to the data.
- Offshore, markets are effectively treading water ahead of President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement due on April 2. The FOMC held rates, but further tapered QT. China announced consumption measures.
Week ahead
- The Australian Federal Budget is handed down at 7:30pm Tuesday, but we don’t expect much in terms of outlook-shifting announcements.
- On the data side, the February CPI Indicator on Wednesday will sharpen expectations for the full Q1 CPI on 26 April.
- It is very quiet in New Zealand, with only consumer confidence and filled jobs on Friday of note.
- S&P Global Preliminary PMIs on Monday will be watched closely for further corroboration (or not) of a shift in growth momentum away from the US and towards Europe.
- In the US, as well as a host of FOMC speakers, Personal Income and Spending data on Friday includes the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the PCE deflator.
- The UK gets February CPI data Wednesday, and France and Spain get March preliminary numbers Friday ahead of the eurozone wide measure the following week.
- It is quiet on the Chinese data calendar. In Japan, Tokyo CPI is released Friday
Also in the What to Watch
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