What to Watch - Week of 17 February 2025

Past Week

• Locally, it was quiet apart from the NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Confidence
• Uncertainty over US trade policy continues. A 25% tariff on steel and aluminium was announced. Further product specific products have been flagged and a study into reciprocal tariffs ordered
• US Fed Chair Powell in testimony said he thought “the neutral rate has risen meaningful and “many of my colleagues on the FOMC” also do. Note the December dots showed a cluster who pencilled neutral at 3.5-4.0%.

Week ahead

• NAB sees a February rate cut as more likely than a hold on Tuesday, but it is a closer call than market pricing near of 90%. There are new forecasts and a press conference on Tuesday, and the Governor appears with colleagues in front of the House on Friday.
• Following the RBA meeting and forecast update, Q4 Wages are expected up 0.8% q/q on Wednesday. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 4.1% on Thursday but look for any influence of more than usual people waiting to start work, which drove a temporary increase in the last two Januarys and suggests a change to seasonal patterns.
• Offshore the Munich security conference, which ends on Sunday, could create weekend headlines.
• It is a quieter data calendar next week in the US and Monday is the President’s Day holiday, but tariff headlines will remain a focus. FOMC Minutes are out Wednesday, and there are several Fed speakers during the week.
• Global PMIs are published Friday. In the UK, labour market data including Wages on Tuesday, and January CPI is Wednesday.
• Japan gets Q4 GDP Monday and national inflation Friday. It is a quiet week for data in China

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts 

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All prices and analysis at 14 February 2025.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB").

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