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What to Watch - Week of 6 January

And so it begins. Kicking off 2025 here at home, all eyes will be on the November CPI print, with NAB tipping a 2.4% y/y number, from 2.1%. Elsewhere, quiet in NZ while in the US focus will be on December payrolls, JOLTS and the ISM Services data, alongside the Fed’s December meeting minutes and a host of FOMC speakers are scheduled. Here’s what to watch in the week ahead.
NAB Markets Research
06 January 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past 2 Weeks

  • It was a characteristically quiet year-end in terms of fundamental developments
  • The S&P500 is 1.1% lower than 2 weeks ago, down 1.7% over the last week
  • The US dollar is stronger, up 1.6% on the DXY. European currencies the underperformers, with AUD -0.8% to 62c.
  • After a selloff following the Fed’s December 19 hawkish cut, Treasury curves are steeper over the past 2 weeks, 2yr -7bp, 10yr +4bp to 4.56%

Week ahead

  • November CPI Indicator, Job Vacancies, and Retail Sales kick off the local data calendar for 2025.
  • We see the CPI Indicator at 2.4% y/y from 2.1% (consensus 2.2%). See CPI Indicator November Preview: headline up but underlying progress. Retail sales will see a November Black Friday bounce.
  • It is quiet in NZ.
  • In the US, December Payrolls are seen up 153k and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. JOLTS, ISM Services, UMich sentiment are also out. From the Fed, the December FOMC Minutes are Wednesday and a host of FOMC speakers are scheduled. Equity markets are closed, and bond markets reduce hours, Thursday for Jimmy Carter’s funeral.
  • In Europe, preliminary CPI (Tuesday) headlines, with a few ECB speakers to look out for. Nothing of note from the UK.
  • Japan gets labour cash earnings data (Thursday), while China sees the Caixin services PMI (Monday) and inflation data (Thursday)

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.