Tapas Strickland | Markets Research
Past Week
- Monthly CPI Indicator for October at 2.1% y/y was what NAB had expected. Importantly, this is being impacted by government subsidies. Underlying trimmed mean measure was 3.5% y/y and services is hotter at 4.8% y/y
- RBA Governor Bullock spoke Thursday and reinforced the RBA is in no rush to cut rates. NAB continues to see the RBA moving in May 2025, with risks being this may not occur until deeper in 2025
- Offshore, it has been mostly quiet with the US Thanksgiving Holiday. Politics continues to dominate. French budget concerns rose with French yields briefly trading above Greek yields. The RBNZ also cut by 50bps
Week ahead
- Australia sees Q3 GDP (Wednesday) where NAB has pencilled in 0.3% q/q and 0.9% y/y. Although a dated read on activity, it will give an important update on growth and also give the latest read on productivity
- Also in the week is Retail Sales for October (Monday), along with Dwelling Approvals (also Monday) and the Trade Balance (Thursday).
- Offshore, focus will be on the US with Payrolls (Friday) and Fed speakers which include Chair Powell (Wednesday), Williams and Waller (Monday). Elsewhere there could be a Chinese Politburo announcement:
- US data peaks with Payrolls (Friday) where consensus is for 200k jobs and for unemployment to rise one tenth to 4.2%. If that eventuates, unemployment is still set to track below the FOMC’s Q4 dot of 4.4%
- Before then is a plethora of data where the risks are likely to the upside. ISMs (Monday and Wednesday), JOLTs (Tuesday), Beige Book (Wednesday), Uni Mich. Consumer Sentiment (Friday)
- In EZ it is very quiet. The most notable being Retail Sales (Thursday) and a speech by the ECB’s Nagel (Wednesday). Ditto the UK with just the BoE’s Greene (Thursday) of any note
- China sees the Official PMIs (Saturday) and possible Politburo. Japan is relatively quiet with only Labor Cash Earnings (Friday). So too NZ with mostly pre-GDP partials.
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