What to Watch - Week of 4 November
Past Week
- Locally, it was all about Q3 CPI figures. The Trimmed Mean printed at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y, which is what we and the RBA August SoMP had expected, but surprised a large minority who had tipped 0.7% q/q
- Offshore it was a very busy week data wise, but overall a lot of treading water ahead of tonight’s US Payrolls
- Global yields rose a little with the US 10yr up 3.8bps to 4.28%. The UK 10yr though rose 21.3bps to 4.45%, and is not far off the infamous Truss mini budget highs of September 2022 of 4.51%.
Week ahead
- The RBA will leave rates on hold at the Melbourne Cup Day meeting and forecast update. Q3 CPI was in line with their forecasts and leaves them firmly on the side lines. Bank earnings will also garner attention
- The US election on Tuesday will dominate market attention. Polls close from 10am Wednesday AEDT
- The FOMC (Thursday, not Wednesday) is expected to deliver on a 25bp cut. Recent stronger data flow has seen broader cut pricing substantially pared, but futures still put a 95% chance on a November cut. The Services ISMs is Tuesday
- The Bank of England, Riksbank, and Norges Bank also meet Thursday
- China’s NPC meets from Monday through Friday, with details of new fiscal measures and bond issuance likely to be announced on the final day
- Elsewhere, China trade and Caixin Services PMI data, final PMIs, and Canadian Employment data round out the week
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Also in the What to Watch
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