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What to Watch - Week of 16 September

It’s all eyes on the FOMC this week and how big or small the cut will be when the US central bank meets on Wednesday. While majority expect a 25bps move, markets have priced in 1 in 3 chance of a 50bps cut. Locally, jobs data is in the spotlight, with the unemployment rate tipped to hold steady at 4.2%. Around the globe, quiet in Europe in the wake of the ECB’s meeting last week, with the BoJ forecast to hold pat on Friday.
NAB Markets Research
16 September 2024
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • The NAB Business Survey saw conditions and confidence fall in August
  • RBA’s Hunter concluded the cooling labour market is still too tight
  • Slightly hot US CPI briefly saw 50bp cut bets pared, but after PPI pricing is back to 36bp for next week’s meeting even as analysts have tended to coalesce around a 25bp cut.
  • The ECB cut rates for the second time this cycle

Week ahead

  • In Australia, we expect the unemployment rate (Thursday) to hold at 4.2% in August after last month’s participation-driven increase.
  • In NZ, Thursday’s GDP data is expected to show another quarter of decline. Balance of payments data is Wednesday
  • In the US, the FOMC will cut on Wednesday, but how much? Analysts have coalesced around 25bp, but markets price more than a 1 in 3 chance of a 50bp move.
  • It’s a quiet week in Europe in the wake of the ECB meeting.
  • The UK get August inflation data Wednesday ahead of the BoE Thursday, where a hold is widely expected. Retail sales are Friday.
  • In China, monthly activity indicators are tomorrow (Saturday 14th)
  • In Japan, the BoJ is universally seen standing pat on Friday, the same day as August CPI is published.

View the full report here

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