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What to Watch - Week of 8 July 2024

It will be a quieter week on the Australia data calendar with focus on NAB’s Business Survey, released on Tuesday. In the US it’s all about earnings with Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reporting on Friday. On the data docket, CPI and PPI are released with FOMC Chair Jerome Powell testifying in front of the Senate Banking Committee. Around the globe, UK GDP is released today, and China sees inflation, trade data and credit data through out the week.

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • Political fortunes have dominated market moves over the past week in what has been a quiet week for top-tier data (US data flow the exception)
  • In the US, debate is raging whether President Biden will be the Democratic nominee following a woeful debate performance, and yields rose early in the week led by the long end, which reversed following a weak ISM
  • US payrolls tonight of course will overshadow the past week’s moves, as too will be the results of the French 2nd round election should it surprise

Comment

  • In this article we look at the latest consumer confidence data that suggests consumers overall are still very worried about too high inflation
  • Looking at US consumer inflation expectations, while the median is not driving higher, the mean is, suggesting there is a substantial tail that is expecting inflation to remain elevated in this cycle

Week ahead

  • Quiet in Australia. Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Survey Tuesday; prior to that second-tier Lending Finance on Monday
  • The RBNZ (Wednesday) is on hold with no new forecasts, but will they say they discussed a hike, as in May?
  • In the US, Fed Chair Powell testifies in front of the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday and the House on Wednesday. That’s ahead of CPI (Thursday) and PPI & Uni Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday)
  • The US earnings seasons starts again with the major banks of Citigroup, JP Morgan and Well Fargo reporting on Friday.
  • French 2nd round elections (7 July) the highlight, set against a quiet week in Europe. Lots of sport to distract (Euros, Wimbledon, Tour de France)
  • The UK gets Monthly GDP data on Monday. BoE’s Haskel (Monday) and Chief Economist Pill (Wednesday)
  • May Japan cash earnings on Monday could add to prospects of a July rate rise if they confirm Shunto wage outcomes are indeed filtering through
  • China gets inflation data (Wednesday), trade data (Thursday) and credit data in the week from Tuesday. None likely to suggest robust economic momentum ahead of the Third Plenum from 15 July.

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

 

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