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What to Watch - Week of 3 June 2024

Locally, all eyes are on Q1 GDP figures released on Wednesday. NAB sees a soft 0.0% q/q outcome for the data. Around the globe, the ECB and BoC meet, with firm focus on US payrolls in on Friday. Fed speakers are quiet ahead of the June 12 FOMC meeting.

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • Domestically, it was the Monthly CPI Indicator which printed hotter than expected that moved markets (3.6% y/y vs. 3.4% expected).
  • It is a partial indicator and we will have to wait until next month for a better read on services, which is reflective of domestic inflationary pressures.
  • Offshore there wasn’t much to guide markets given the holiday shortened week in the UK and US. Global yields rose

Comment

  • Over the past week, Tapas has been on the road visiting NAB’s diverse range of clients from regional areas such as Port Macquarie and Taree, and capital cities such as Brisbane and Sydney
  • Amongst clients exposed to the upper income/wealth quintiles, there had been little signs of a slowdown in activity. It appears a K-shaped economy
  • Elsewhere, while there were some signs of slowing, one got the impression capacity constraints, and hence output gap, might be larger than what the RBA assumes

Week ahead

  • In Australia, the award wage outcome is expected Monday morning, Q1 GDP data is Wednesday, and the RBA’s Hauser speaks Friday.
  • NAB pencils in a soft 0.0% q/q outcomes for Q1 GDP. Final partials on Tuesday will firm up estimates.
  • We haven’t heard much from the RBA’s Hauser since he started as Deputy Governor, so his ‘fireside chat’ on Friday will be interesting.
  • From central banks, the ECB (Thursday) is set to deliver a well telegraphed cut, while the BoC (Wednesday) is a closer run thing, a cut 65% priced.
  • US Payrolls looms large on the US calendar on Friday, expected to show a similar pace of gains to April’s +175k. Fed speakers go quiet ahead of 12 June FOMC
  • Final PMIS are released, while the more established US ISMs, especially the Services ISM (Wednesday), will be watched for whether it supports the surprising reacceleration in the S&P Global flash PMI.
  • There are also a few key elections to watch with India’s election wrapping up Saturday, and Mexico going to the polls on Sunday.

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.