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What to watch - Week of 24 June 2024

Locally its all about inflation with May CPI released on Wednesday. NAB expects 3.6% y/y growth, unchanged from April. Around the globe its quiet, with PCE data in the US on Friday, and the political arena in focus ahead of the first round of French elections on Sunday plus Biden-Trump have their first election debate. No data of note from China, while Canada and Japan release CPI figures on Tuesday and Friday, respectively.

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • The RBA set the cat amongst the pigeons on Tuesday, with speculation on what the RBA would do should Q2 CPI on 31 July print on the high side
  • Offshore, three other G10 central banks met. The SNB cut rates again, the BoE while holding once more signalled the prospect of an August cut, and in contrast the Norgesbank pushed out easing expectations to 2025
  • In terms of global data flow, US second-tier data is printing to the soft side, though it is unclear how this is translating to activity with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate still sitting at 3.0% annualised (as of 20 June).

Comment

  • Freight rates have exploded over the past year alongside the Israel-Hamas conflict and low dam levels that supply water to the Panama Canal
  • For inflation, this could hamper the global goods disinflation we have seen, which had helped drive global inflation lower
  • Freight costs can represent a substantial share of the imported cost of an item. E.g: freight was worth 6.2% of the cost of imported furniture in 2019, it rose to as high as 19% during the pandemic

Week ahead

  • In Australia, the May CPI Indicator (Wednesday) should be viewed for its implications for Q2 CPI on 31 July, rather than in isolation. We pencil in 3.6% y/y, unchanged from April, and a small moderation in the ex volatile and travel number form 4.1%. See preview.
  • From the RBA, Deputy Governor Hauser speaks Thursday evening, a chance perhaps to see how comfortable the RBA is with what was in the inflation indicator. Also May Vacancies (Thursday) and RBA’s Kent (Wednesday).
  • It is a quiet week globally. US PCE (Friday) is expected to confirm the good news out of May CPI and PPI. The consumption numbers will also be watched closely given softness in retail sales.
  • In Europe, preliminary country level CPIs are released from Thursday ahead of the eurozone estimate the following week. Riksbank also meets Thursday and markets price a 20% chance of a cut.
  • Politics will be in focus with the first round of the French elections on Sunday (30 June). In the US, Biden-Trump have their first election debate (Thursday).
  • It is a quiet data calendar in China. Japan sees Tokyo CPI Friday. And Canada has its CPI numbers on Tuesday – important for the BoC with markets 66% priced for a follow up cut in July. 

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

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NAB Markets Research

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