Important Information:

Some site functionality will be unavailable between 01:00 and 09:00 on Sunday 28th of July for scheduled maintenance. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

search search

What to watch - Week of 10 June

In a holiday shortened trading week, all eyes are fixed on Thursday’s jobs data. NAB expects a fallback in the May unemployment rate to 4% from 4.1%. In the US, the FOMC meeting and core CPI data on Wednesday highlight the week. Around the globe, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets Friday, and its quiet in Europe with focus on the outcomes of the European Parliamentary elections.
NAB Markets Research
11 June 2024
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • A big week offshore with interest rate cuts by the BoC and ECB. However, inflation data will have to play ball for further cuts to be delivered
  • Yields took their direction from softer US employment indicators (ahead of payrolls tonight) with the US 10yr yield falling 20bps to 4.30%
  • Australian macro data was not overly market moving. Q1 GDP printed close to expectations at 0.1% q/q vs. 0.2% consensus, and was 1.1% y/y

Comment

  • We give a sneak peek at some preliminary findings on the return to office, which suggest office attendance appears to be stalling at 75% of pre-Covid
  • Sydney train station data suggests that while usage improved at inner city stations through 2023, progress has stalled in the past six months

Week ahead

  • It’s a holiday Monday for most of Australia (excl. WA & QLD), Followed by labour market data (Thursday) and the NAB Business Survey (Tuesday)
  • NAB pencils in a fallback in the May unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1%.
  • In the US, the FOMC (Wednesday) and US Core CPI (Wednesday) take centre stage. PPI (Thursday) fills out read-through to the Fed’s preferred PCE.
  • Out of the FOMC we expect the median 2024 dots to be pared to 2 cuts. Consensus for Core CPI is 0.3% m/m. Ahead of payrolls tonight, markets are more than 80% priced for a cut in September.
  • The BoJ meets Friday, where a majority of analysts look for a reduction in bond purchases. The messaging will be watched for whether it tees up a July hike.
  • A quiet week for data in Europe, though ECB speakers are in focus, along with the outcomes of European Parliamentary elections. Watch for an EU decision on tariffs on Chinese EVs.
  • In the UK labour market data including weekly earnings is Tuesday
  • Chinese aggregate financing data is due by 15 June and CPI is Wednesday. 

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it.

Please Click Here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. Please Click Here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.

All prices and analysis at 7 June 2024.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.

Markets NAB Markets Research
About the Author
NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.