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What to Watch - Week of 27 May

It will be a bigger week for top tier Australian data, headlined by key April inflation data on Wednesday, with retail sales and building approvals also on the docket. Globally, the US and UK have a holiday shortened week with focus on the US PCE deflator on Friday, with a raft of Fed Speakers throughout the week. Finally, China’s official PMI’s are released on Friday alongside Preliminary Eurozone CPI figures.

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • Yields moved higher over the week in Australia (and offshore), driven mostly by offshore developments
  • Across the Ditch the RBNZ was hawkish in their post-meeting Statement. Our BNZ colleagues pushed out their RBNZ rate cut call to February 2025 from November 2024
  • The UK CPI printed hot, reducing the chances of a June rate hike (now only 7% priced from 58% last week), markets not fully priced until November
  • US data bucked the softening trend with the PMIs printing well above expectations

Week ahead

  • Monday is a holiday in both the US and UK
  • In Australia, Retail Sales (Tuesday) and April CPI Indicator (Wednesday) headline, with Q2 pre-GDP investment partials, building approvals, and private credit also featuring.
  • April monthly CPI is the goods-heavy first month of the quarter. We expect inflation to fall back to 3.4% from 3.5%, in line with consensus.
  • In NZ, a larger fiscal deficit and funding programme are expected out of the Government’s Budget on Thursday
  • The US PCE deflator on Friday headlines the US calendar. Also on the agenda are the second estimate of Q1 GDP (Thursday) and the Beige Book (Wednesday). There’s plenty of Fed Speakers, headlined by Williams on Thursday.
  • In Europe, Preliminary Eurozone CPI is published Friday, following country level CPIs including Germany (Wednesday)
  • Elsewhere, China’s official PMI’s are on Friday, as are Tokyo CPI and Japan unemployment and industrial production

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

 

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.