What to Watch - Week of 27 May
Taylor Nugent | Markets Research
Past Week
- Yields moved higher over the week in Australia (and offshore), driven mostly by offshore developments
- Across the Ditch the RBNZ was hawkish in their post-meeting Statement. Our BNZ colleagues pushed out their RBNZ rate cut call to February 2025 from November 2024
- The UK CPI printed hot, reducing the chances of a June rate hike (now only 7% priced from 58% last week), markets not fully priced until November
- US data bucked the softening trend with the PMIs printing well above expectations
Week ahead
- Monday is a holiday in both the US and UK
- In Australia, Retail Sales (Tuesday) and April CPI Indicator (Wednesday) headline, with Q2 pre-GDP investment partials, building approvals, and private credit also featuring.
- April monthly CPI is the goods-heavy first month of the quarter. We expect inflation to fall back to 3.4% from 3.5%, in line with consensus.
- In NZ, a larger fiscal deficit and funding programme are expected out of the Government’s Budget on Thursday
- The US PCE deflator on Friday headlines the US calendar. Also on the agenda are the second estimate of Q1 GDP (Thursday) and the Beige Book (Wednesday). There’s plenty of Fed Speakers, headlined by Williams on Thursday.
- In Europe, Preliminary Eurozone CPI is published Friday, following country level CPIs including Germany (Wednesday)
- Elsewhere, China’s official PMI’s are on Friday, as are Tokyo CPI and Japan unemployment and industrial production
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All prices and analysis at 24 May 2024. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB").
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