Tapas Strickland & Taylor Nugent | Markets Research
Past Week
- Global yields fell following a US CPI print that did not come in hotter than expected, bucking the trend of the prior three months. Equities rallied with the S&P500 making fresh record highs.
- In Australia, it was a big week with the Federal Budget, Q1 WPI and Labour Force. In the end it was the unemployment rate that was the most market moving which saw a sharp surprising rise (4.1% vs. 3.9% expected)
- Markets now price around a 50% chance of an RBA rate cut by December 2024, well up on a 0% chance being priced last week.
Comment
- Developments in China suggest authorities are contemplating a drastic restructuring of the property sector and listed property stocks increased sharply over the past week
- The latest proposal is for the inventory of unsold homes to be put onto government books with local state-owned enterprises being asked to purchase inventory from distressed developers at steep discounts
- Officials contemplating more drastic support for the beleaguered property sector should help a Chinese recovery. Such action would be AUD and commodity supportive. An important area to watch
Week ahead
- It is a lull in the Australian calendar, with only the RBA Minutes and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) of any note
- RBNZ (Wednesday) is expected to be on hold with little change to its previous messaging
- In the US, FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings (both Wednesday) feature, with plenty of Fed speakers throughout the week.
- Flash Global PMIs (Thursday). Will they continue to suggest some of the US outperformance is narrowing amid ongoing European recovery?
- UK April CPI (Wednesday) should dip back to around 2% on energy price falls. Japan CPI is also expected to slow in y/y terms on Friday.
- CA April CPI (Tuesday) also worth a look given the paring back of BoC June rate cut pricing which now stands at around 50%
- The G7 finance ministers meet from Thursday.
Also in the What to Watch
This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it.
Please Click Here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. Please Click Here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.
All prices and analysis at 17 May 2024. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB").
The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer. This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.
|
