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What to Watch - Week of 29 April 2024

What to watch: AU retail sales, FOMC meeting, US NFP and key earnings from Apple and Amazon.

What to Watch - Week of 26 April

Past Week

  • Unhelpfully strong Australian CPI sees RBA cut pricing erased and the AUD/USD stronger.
  • Just one cut now priced out to the end of 2025, and market pricing allows some small risk of a hike to the end of this year.
  • USDJPY slides through 156 to new 34-year low.
  • PMIs were robust in Europe, but softer in the US.

Comment

  • US Q1 GDP disappointed but it is still robust compared to other economies.
  • Australia’s recent activity outcomes compare favourably almost everywhere except the US.
  • Real disposable incomes have been squeezed comparatively hard in Australia, but the outlook is for improvement.

Week ahead

  • AU Retail Sales headlines a mostly second tier local data calendar.
  • NZ Q1 employment data is expected to see unemployment rise three tenths to 4.3% on 0.3% q/q employment growth.
  • The FOMC on Wednesday is on hold with no new projections.
  • US Payrolls on Friday is expected to show another healthy payrolls gain (consensus 250k) while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%.
  • Earnings season continues, with Apple and Amazon in focus this week.
  • In Europe, Preliminary April CPI is on Tuesday, ahead of the advanced Q1 GDP print on Wednesday.
  • Elsewhere, Chinese PMIs and Japanese Jobless rate, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production are all out Tuesday.

View the full report here

Important Events Preview

Australia Retail Sales | US FOMC, Payrolls | UK Quiet | EZ Preliminary CPI, GDP | China PMIs

Also in the What to Watch

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NAB Markets Research

Our markets team is keeping clients informed with award-winning in-depth analysis on the Australian economy, foreign currency, fixed income, credit and commodities markets.