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Hugh Selby-Smith | Talaria Capital
Back in May 2021 the US Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation was that it would be transitory, while only a year ago it estimated the funds rate would peak at 1.75%. Back then we put together a list of 8 stats that we thought were important for investors to consider when thinking about the possibility of the opposite: the chance of persistent and high levels of inflation.
Fast forward to today and there’s no doubt inflation and interest rates are still on the rise, with the Fed expecting the peak to be over 4.5%, and so the debate is now about how high and for how long.
No one knows the future, so we like to prepare for a range of outcomes in times of uncertainty rather than forecast the unknowable. As a result, we’ve put together another list – this time 10 stats that we think are useful when considering the next 12-18 months and how it might impact investors.
These stats consider valuation, earnings, diversification and the investor experience. As it stands the established relationships between interest rates, leading economic indicators, and corporate earnings all point towards falling profitability into the second half of 2023, meaning numbers, not narrative really matters.
All prices and analysis at 7 December 2022. This content has been created by Talaria Asset Management (AFSL 333732). This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice. This article does not reflect the views of WealthHub Securities Limited.