Did the market overreact to WiseTech insider trading allegations?

Roy Van Keulen | Morningstar

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Australian Federal Police executed a search warrant on company premises as part of an investigation into insider trading. Shares plummeted about 15% on the day.

Why it matters

The investigation includes trades by company founder Richard White, who we consider instrumental to the company’s success, and three other WiseTech (ASX: WTC) employees. The company is unaware of any charges having been laid.

• The period investigated was after White resigned as CEO in October 2024 and before he assumed the role of executive chairman in February 2025. Some of the sales took place during the blackout period between the end of the financial period and the publication of the results.
• A company spokeswoman previously said White obtained independent legal advice prior to selling the shares. We think it’s highly likely White’s legal advisors reviewed or discussed the information White had, and concluded White did not have access to material information before selling.

The bottom line

We leave our fair value estimate for the wide-moat company unchanged at AUD 138 per share as we don’t expect the investigation to affect White’s continued employment. Shares now screen as materially undervalued, given the year-long governance saga.

• We considered cutting our fair value estimate given the risk of a departure. But so far, don’t know the nature and materiality of any information White may have had, and that he sought legal advice before trading seems important.
• If White is forced out, this would likely materially affect our fair value estimate; we estimate a 15%-20% cut. We think it’s likely that both the rate of growth and the ultimate progression of the business would shrink. But at this stage, we think the risk is small and the shares are cheap regardless.

WiseTech share price

Source: Morningstar

WiseTech is an AI winner

WiseTech’s long-term strategy centers on becoming the operating system for global trade and logistics as the industry digitizes.

We expect the logistics industry to digitize rapidly over the next decade. The logistics industry currently operates with a relatively low level of digitization. However, the market for logistics services naturally selects for the lowest-cost providers and we see digitization as a key driver of cost-savings. We therefore see the process of digitization as inevitable, either through companies adopting digitization to remain competitive or through digital leaders taking market share from the digital laggards.

WiseTech provides logistics companies the technology to digitize. WiseTech’s core product suite, CargoWise, provides the best-in-class software solution for international freight-forwarding by air and ocean, and customs and compliance. We see logistics companies that use the CargoWise international freight-forwarding solution significantly outperforming their peers due to the efficiency and productivity improvements the platform provides. We therefore expect this solution to become the industry default, either through increased customer adoption or through WiseTech’s customers taking market share.

We expect WiseTech to leverage its already dominant position in international freight-forwarding to move into downstream adjacencies, which consist of, in order of functional proximity, road and rail and warehousing. Additionally, with the acquisition of e2open, we also expect WiseTech to move into upstream adjacencies, as it starts servicing beneficial cargo owners with their logistics procurement processes.

Bulls say

• CargoWise’s international freight-forwarding solution is best-in-class and we expect this solution to become the industry-default.
• WiseTech is well placed to leverage CargoWise’s market position in international freight-forwarding into adjacent services such as customs and compliance, rail and road, and warehousing.
• The logistics industry currently operates with a relatively low level of digitization, but we see the process of digitization as largely inevitable.

Bears say

• The logistics industry is still in the early stages of digitizing, meaning there is high uncertainty as to how large the market opportunity will be for WiseTech’s current and future products.
• Following the resignation of founder White from the CEO role and his transition to the board as executive chairman, it is unclear whether the company will have the same level of executive leadership.
• WiseTech’s hasn’t yet incorporated all of its acquisitions into the CargoWise product suite, and the return on those investments could be dilutive if they lack strategic attention.

Access this research and more at Morningstar. For a free four-week trial, click here.

All prices and analysis at 29 October 2025.  This information has been prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Limited (“Morningstar”) ABN: 95 090 665 544 AFSL: 240 892.). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer.  This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB.  Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.