NAB Business Survey - September 2026
Sally Auld, Gareth Spence & Michael Hayes | Group Economics
Summary
Business confidence fell further in September and is now 18pts below its long-run average, and 22pts lower than a year ago – reflecting both global uncertainty and domestic challenges. Business conditions were broadly unchanged in the month, though the employment index declined to its lowest level in five years, offsetting small rebounds in profitability and trading conditions, both of which remain well below average levels. Costs and price growth were largely unchanged, but purchase costs remain well above their long-run average and continue to outpace final prices growth. Overall, the survey remains consistent with some modest further slowing in growth in Q3 and highlights risks that labour demand will slow a little from here. However, despite pointing to a slower pace of growth through 2026 to date, capacity utilisation remains above average in 5 out of 8 industries, suggesting some breadth to capacity pressures. Costs growth remains elevated, continuing to highlight the risk of further pass through to final product prices. The combination of weak confidence, cost pressures, above average capacity utilisation and softer profitability is unusual and may suggest a further softening in activity in the final quarter of 2026.
Next release date: 10 November 2026
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All prices and analysis at 13 October 2026. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer. This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.