NAB Business Survey - October 2026
Sally Auld | Group Chief Economist
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Summary
Both business confidence and conditions edged down in October and continue to track below their respective long run averages. The weakening trend through 2026 in conditions continues to be driven by softer trading conditions and profitability, while the employment index has been resilient. A notable softening in forward orders this month points to the risk that trading conditions will soften further over coming months. In addition, input cost growth continues to well outpace output price growth, suggesting that margins and cashflows will continue to be pressured in the near-term. This may drive some softening in labour demand over coming months. Capacity utilisation continues to paint a slightly different picture, however, remaining above average despite the softening in the activity indicators we have seen through 2026. While the broad contours of the survey are consistent across all industries, a key call out remains the consumer facing sectors where retail shows the weakest activity metrics, and recreation & personal services has also softened through 2026. In contrast, finance, business & property services continues to hold up. Overall, the business survey suggests that growth has slowed further through H2 2026 and that cost push inflation will likely remain a challenge in the near-term. However, despite the slowing in activity, the survey suggests the economy continues to operate near its capacity. This may be one reason for the RBA’s recently expressed concerns about the supply side capacity of the domestic economy.
Next release date: 8 December 2026
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All prices and analysis at 10 November 2026. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). The content is distributed by WealthHub Securities Limited (WSL) (ABN 83 089 718 249)(AFSL No. 230704). WSL is a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)(AFSL No. 230686) (NAB). NAB doesn’t guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations or performance, or the products or services its subsidiaries offer. This material is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without having regard to or taking into account any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation and/or needs, before acting on the advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any comments, suggestions or views presented do not reflect the views of WSL and/or NAB. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, neither WSL nor NAB shall be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or general advice including any third party sourced data (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the general advice or information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, WSL and NAB limit its liability to the re-supply of the information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. For more information, please click here.